I have spent considerable time and energy delving into oil as an investment. There are many ways to invest in oil but some are a little messier than others. I recently told about the position I took against the continuation of new peak oil prices - was I right? was my timing right?

Nobody seems to know, read any financial section and you will see the bears and bulls and seemingly excellent arguments.

So who to believe?

Nobody. These people spend their lives studying commodities and oil specifically and these analysts have big computers (cranial and extra-cranial).

If these experts cannot figure it out with all the data available than how can the little guy? Maybe he/she does not have to.

I know the supply and demand numbers and projections and assumptions as does anyone else with internet access, so there is little money to be made there.

I am looking at the crud because clearly the numbers are not helping. In the 1973 Oil Crisis and the 1979 Energy Crisis, oil future prices rose dramatically along with mounting bad news about the dwindling supply and spiking demand.

Have a look at this chart.

There have been ‘cheap oil-ending’ crises before and if you read any paper today rest assured, we are in the middle of ANOTHER one. Is it different this time? That is the question. Is the US going the way of the British Empire (dynasties do fall after all; Ming, Khan, NY Islanders….). If one is going to place a bet on oil, pick a side.

Now for the ‘crud’ [Middle English crudde, possibly from Old English *cruden, past participle of crdan, to press, drive.] compliments of TheFreeDictionary.com.

My read of the crud is that the bull crud (analysts) are pressing hard for the New World Order. Look at all the reasons oil will be $200/barrel forever more - war, Asia, US dollar, Peaks… and the list goes on.

Exactly why I am betting against the bull crud - the world simply does not change this fast and hard.

“For every action there is a equal and opposite reaction” Newton

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