• I observe the recent ‘rally’ in North American market indexes with interest.  Sure there is still volatility but the VIX has settled considerably over the past month.  

  • What does the immediate future hold?  Nobody, and I stress, nobody really knows for certain. There are very educated and wise gurus on both sides of the fence.  I am neither but will still forward some speculation, simply because ‘it’s my blog and I’ll cry if I want to’.
  • Break Out (sustained rally) 20%
  • Fake Out (bear rally) 20%
  • Stake Out (long wait) 40%
  • Take Out (descend into a depression) 20%
  •  Not really helpful in any way except that an appropriate investment portfolio should both capitalize on the potential upside while covering the downside.  Some of myy methods have been:
  • Invest in solid Canadian dividend-paying stocks - Financial, Insurance, Energy
  • Invest in Gold and Gold Producers
  • Pay down borrowed capital ASAP and ensure additional cash is ready to deploy
  • Of these it is most likely that (probably stagnant) dividends will contribute the most upside as will eliminating investment debt, especially if anything but a sustained rally occurs.
  • Who knows what is in store for gold but it is a nice hedge against the US dollar
  • Working hard and extracting your human capital now will not only allow you to decrease debt, especially the bad personal consumption type, but also goes some distance in ensuring job retention.  

There will be a time for investing in the stocks of other countries such as the US, India, Brazil and China but I don’t think that time is here yet.  We likely have a way to go before we reach the point in time that the ever prescient market makes the unannounced uptick that carries into a new global bull market.  Keep your eyes open.

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